A new government report has a dire warning for the Obama administration: The United States could suffer the effects of abrupt climate changes within decades—sooner than some previously thought.

The report says that seas could rise rapidly if melting of polar ice continues to outrun recent projections, and that an ongoing drought in the U.S. west could be the start of permanent drying for the region.

Many scientists are now raising the possibility that abrupt, according to the report, that catastrophic switches in natural systems may punctuate the steady rise in global temperatures now underway.

According to the report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) maximum estimate of two feet of sea level rise by 2100 may be exceeded, because new data shows that melting of polar ice sheets is accelerating.

Among other things, there is now good evidence that the Antarctic ice cap is losing overall mass. At the time of the IPCC report, scientists were uncertain whether collapses of ice shelves into the ocean off the western Antarctica were being offset by snow accumulation in the continent’s interior. But one coauthor, remote-sensing specialist Eric Rignot of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told a press conference at the meeting:  “There is a new consensus that Antarctica is losing mass.” Seaward flow of ice from Greenland is also accelerating. However, projections of how far sea levels might rise are “highly uncertain,” says the report, as researchers cannot say whether such losses will continue at the same rates.

In the interior United States, a widespread drought that began in the Southwest about 6 years ago could be the leading edge of a new climate regime for a wider region.

The researchers said two other systemic changes seem less imminent, but are still of concern. Vast quantities of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, have long been locked up in ocean sediments, wetlands and permafrost. These could be destabilized by climate change, leading to blowouts of gas, and thus even more abrupt temperature shifts.

The researchers also said blowouts appear unlikely in the next 100 years—but that steady emissions could double, especially in the north, as land and water warm up.

The researchers also looked at the continuous circulation of the Atlantic Ocean, which sends warm water northward and cold water southward, controlling the climate of western Europe and beyond. Some scientists say this circulation could collapse if enough northern ice melts and dilutes the salty water. The panel found this scenario unlikely in the short term, but warned that the circulation’s strength might decline 25% to 30% by 2100.

“Abrupt climate change presents potential risks for society that are poorly understood,” the researchers write. [There is an] urgent need for committed and sustained monitoring of those components [that] are particularly vulnerable.”

The U.S. Census Bureau reports that about one in five U.S. residents — 19 percent — reported some level of
disability in 2005. These 54.4 million Americans are roughly equal to the combined total populations of California and Florida.

Both the number and percentage of people with disabilities were higher than in 2002, the last time the Census Bureau collected such information. At that time, 51.2 million, or 18 percent, reported a disability.

Among those with a disability, 35 million, or 12 percent of the population, were classified as having a severe disability, according to Americans With Disabilities.

Nearly half (46 percent) of people age 21 to 64 with a disability were employed, compared with 84 percent of people in this age group without a disability. Among those with disabilities, 31 percent with severe
disabilities and 75 percent with nonsevere disabilities were employed. People with difficulty hearing were more likely to be employed than those with difficulty seeing (59 percent compared with 41 percent).

A portion of people with disabilities — 11 million age 6 and older — needed personal assistance with everyday activities. These activities include such tasks as getting around inside the home, taking a bath or
shower, preparing meals and performing light housework.

Other important findings:

– Among people 15 and older, 7.8 million (3 percent) had difficulty hearing a normal conversation, including 1 million being unable to hear at all. Although not part of the definition of disability used in the report, 4.3 million people reported using a hearing aid.

– Roughly 3.3 million people, or 1 percent, age 15 and older used a wheelchair or similar device, with 10.2 million, or 4 percent, using a cane, crutches or walker.

– Nearly 7.8 million people age 15 and older had difficulty seeing words or letters in ordinary newspaper print, including 1.8 million being completely unable to see.

– More than 16 million people had difficulty with cognitive, mental or emotional functioning. This included 8.4 million with one or more problems that interfere with daily activities, such as frequently being depressed or anxious, trouble getting along with others, trouble concentrating and trouble coping with stress.

– The chances of having a disability increase with age: 18.1 million people 65 and older, or 52 percent, had a disability. Of this number, 12.9 million, or 37 percent, had a severe disability. For people 80 and older,
the disability rate was 71 percent, with 56 percent having a severe disability.

– Among people 16 to 64, 13.3 million, or 7 percent, reported difficulty finding a job or remaining employed because of a health-related condition.

– Among people 25 to 64 with a severe disability, 27 percent were in poverty, compared with 12 percent for people with a nonsevere disability and 9 percent for those without a disability.

– Median monthly earnings were $1,458 for people with a severe disability, $2,250 for people with a nonsevere disability and $2,539 for those with no disability.

– Parents reported that 228,000 children under age 3, or 2 percent, had a disability. Specifically, they either had a developmental delay or difficulty moving their arms or legs. In addition, there were 475,000
children 3 to 5 years, or 4 percent, with a disability, which meant they had either a developmental delay or difficulty walking, running or playing.

– There were 4.7 million children 6 to 14, or 13 percent, with a disability. The most prevalent type was difficulty doing regular schoolwork (2.5 million, or 7 percent).

Terry Francl, senior economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation, reports that after increasing for six consecutive years, U.S. fertilizer prices are finally beginning to fall at the wholesale level.

“Up until very recently, fertilizer prices were astronomical at both the wholesale and retail level,” Francl said. “Fertilizer producers were clearly reacting to record commodity prices, and companies priced their products accordingly.”

Now that prices for corn, soybeans and other commodities have declined 50 percent or more from summer peaks, wholesale prices for fertilizer are dropping as well, but retail prices have yet to fall. Francl said the wholesale fertilizer  price drop began about two months ago, generally after the time farmers applied fall fertilizer to their crops.

Wholesale prices for anhydrous ammonia in the Corn Belt have declined from the $1,000 per –ton- plus range to the $500 range. Urea has dropped from the mid-$800 range to the mid-$300 range. Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) has declined from $1,100 to $600 per ton. The decline in potash prices has been less notable, dropping from a little over $900 per ton to slightly over $800.

“The reasons for the decline involve much more than just crop prices. Natural gas prices have declined from more than $11 per million BTUs (1,000 cubic feet) to around $6 per million BTUs. Natural gas is the primary input utilized to manufacture anhydrous ammonia and typically accounts for 80 percent to 90 percent of all input costs,” Francl explained in AFBF’s December Market Update report.

“Anhydrous ammonia in turn is the basic feedstock for nearly all the other nitrogen fertilizers. So the cost of production of the entire nitrogen complex has waned considerably. There are similar declines in phosphate production and lower sulfur and
phosphate rock prices.”

Potash prices appear to be retreating much slower, if at all, because more than 90 percent of the potash used in this country is imported, mostly from Canada but also from some European and former Soviet Union countries. Potash prices are therefore more affected by changes in the value of the dollar, which has declined recently, meaning that it makes imports more expensive.

Francl said fertilizer dealers with large, high-priced inventories could be in a difficult position this spring due to indications by farmers that they plan to plant less fertilizer-intensive crops, such as corn and cotton and plant more soybeans which don’t use nitrogen at all, and as legumes actually add nitrogen to the ground.

To compete, fertilizer dealers will have to “cost average their prices down” by averaging their current high priced inventories with lower-priced future inventories, Francl said. “Farmers would be well-advised to hold off their spring purchases for as long as possible. The inherent danger in such a strategy is that a spring rush may cause supply bottlenecks. However, nitrogen products can be applied to row crops in the form of side dressing later in the spring.”

The Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy (IATP) brings up some good points not only about the big challenges ahead for Tom Vilsack as the new Agriculture Secretary, but a bigger question, “How progressive will the Obama administration when it comes to an ag agenda of change.

For IATP, stabilizing agriculture markets, promoting sustainability and health must be top priorities for Vilsack and Obama.

“As Iowa’s Governor, Vilsack has shown a fairly conventional perspective on agriculture—particularly related to biotechnology and the siting of factory farms—that seems to indicate a status quo approach,” said IATP President Jim Harkness. “But these are unconventional times, and with his charge to implement the national vision for agriculture of President-elect Obama, he has an opportunity to address the concerns of farmers—big and small, organic and conventional—and consumers, as well as environmental challenges facing the country.”

The number one challenge in agriculture, according to Harkness, is extreme price volatility—the spikes and drops in farm gate and food prices causing enormous problems for farmers, consumers and the environment. He said farmers could face a very difficult 2009 with commodity prices dropping, while fertilizer, land and seed costs remain high.

“His first test will be to address the volatility that has caused havoc in agriculture over the last several years,” said IATP’s Rural Communities Program Director Jim Kleinschmit. “We can’t make the changes we need in agriculture, like expanding environmentally sustainable farming systems or greater production of healthier food, without stabilizing prices for farmers and consumers. Efforts to fix deregulated agriculture markets will have to include greater antitrust enforcement and market transparency, such as the ban on packer ownership of feedlots. ”

The U.S. agriculture economy is undergoing a transition on many fronts. Other key challenges facing new Secretary Vilsack include:
·        The bioeconomy is trying to rapidly transition from corn-based ethanol toward more sustainable feedstocks. But what was once a primarily farmer-owned industry is increasingly being dominated by absentee corporate owners, providing fewer community benefits.
·        Consumers want more organic, locally produced and healthier food, but government programs still offer relatively little support and multiple obstacles to meet this market demand.
·        As the number of farmers declines and the average farmers’ age rises, significant barriers prevent much-needed new farmers from entering the sector.
·        Along with adapting to climate change, agriculture is being identified as both a contributor and possible mitigator of climate change. The USDA will have to lead a shift toward a climate-friendly agriculture.
·        A rising number of major food recalls and internal government audits have exposed serious weaknesses in the USDA’s food safety oversight.

“Secretary Vilsack faces a tall order. We look forward to working with him,” said Harkness.