agriculture * food * energy * environment
9 Feb
The USDA’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates, released Tuesday, reported that total U.S. meat production for 2010 is little changed as higher beef production is more than offset by lower forecast production of pork and turkey.
The cattle report estimated the cattle numbers on January 1, 2010, declined from the previous year, but implied the number of cattle outside feedlots remains close to last year. Thus, according to USDA, forecast placements and marketings are raised, resulting in higher forecast cattle slaughter. However, partly offsetting the increase in expected slaughter, cattle weights are reduced for early 2010 due to severe weather which has impacted weight gain.
Pork production, the report said, is reduced as slaughter has been lower than expected and weights slightly lighter. Turkey production for 2010 was reduced as the pace of growth implied by hatchery data has been less than expected.
Broiler meat and egg production forecasts are unchanged from last month. Estimated meat production for 2009 is adjusted to reflect December slaughter data.
According to the report, only small changes are made to 2009 beef exports. There are no changes to red meat export forecasts for 2010 but the broiler export forecast is reduced from last month. Recently announced duties on U.S. broilers by China and continued trade restrictions in several other countries will pressure broiler exports.
Cattle price forecasts are lowered for 2010 as larger numbers of fed cattle are expected to pressure prices, the report said. Hog prices are raised as tighter supplies may help support prices. Broiler prices are forecast higher in 2010 as domestic demand is expected to grow.
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