Nebraska is an important state when it comes to the future history of this planet and it’s because of the dominance of its agricultural industry. In 2008, cash receipts from livestock in Nebraska was $8.3 billion. Nebraska is the nation’s leading red meat production state and the nation’s top cattle state.

Take livestock away from Nebraska’s economy, it would be hard pressed to find a replacement any time soon. There are challenges ahead from the world’s livestock industry as the planet’s population expands as the story at the end of this post indicated.

Because of the presence of  the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Cooperative Extension program, not only will Nebraska be a future supplier of meat, but the research that must be done to address these concerns to make livestock and human co-existence more compatible can be done in this state to insure the future prosperity of this important aspect of our economy.

That research, whether it done on the range, in the feedlots or in the packing plants, has no other better place for it to happen than in Nebraska.

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Global meat production has tripled in the past three decades and could double its present level by 2050, according to a new report on the livestock industry by an international team of scientists and policy experts. The impact of this “livestock revolution” is likely to have significant consequences for human health, the environment and the global economy, the authors conclude.

“The livestock industry is massive and growing,” said Harold A. Mooney, co-editor of the two-volume report, Livestock in a Changing Landscape (Island Press).  Mooney is a professor of biology and senior fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment.

“This is the first time that we’ve looked at the social, economic, health and environmental impacts of livestock in an integrated way and presented solutions for reducing the detrimental effects of the industry and enhancing its positive attributes,” he said.

Among the key findings in the report are:

• More than 1.7 billion animals are used in livestock production worldwide and occupy more than one-fourth of the Earth’s land.
• Production of animal feed consumes about one-third of total arable land.
• Livestock production accounts for approximately 40 percent of the global agricultural gross domestic product.
• The livestock sector, including feed production and transport, is responsible for about 18 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. 

AccuWeather.com reports after a temperature rebound through the middle of the week, there are likely to be invasions of chilly weather rolling across the Plains starting this weekend which may make additional visits into the end of the month.

In Central Nebraska, there’s a chance of snow toward the weekend, but daytime highs above freezing will not have it hanging around on the ground for any length of time. It’s just the additional moisture to add to an already saturated soil as we head toward planting time.

AccuWeather.com’s concern is the cold snap in areas where winter wheat is coming out of dormancy, like in Texas and Oklahoma. But winter wheat always has lots and lots of lives before it finally gets into the bin.

But with the advance of corn and soybean technology, that has made those two crops a statewide force to be reckon with, and wheat acres have diminished.

For example, the USDA reports that Nebraska’s winter wheat seedings for the 2010 crop are expected to total 1.50 million acres. This acreage level, according to the USDA, is down 12 percent or 200,000 acres from last year and the smallest winter wheat planted acreage since records began in 1919.

Last year was the same story, as the USDA reported that the final 2009 production for Nebraska wheat totaled 76.8 million bushels, 5 percent above last year’s crop but 9 percent below two years ago. Average yield in Nebraska, according to the USDA, at 48 bushels per acre, is 4 bushels above last year and equal to the record high set in 1999. Area harvested for grain, at 1.6 million acres, is 70,000 less than 2008.

More than 90 percent of Nebraska’s corn and soybeans are planted to biotech varieties. But concerns are still out there about biotech wheat. One wonders if biotech wheat becomes as accepted as biotech corn and soybeans, if that will be a driving force to increase wheat acres in Nebraska, especially as a double crop to soybeans.

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According to AccuWeather.com, the latest indications are that winter will bounce back over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation during the next two weeks with cold storms and below normal temperatures.

Winter wheat is especially vulnerable to temperatures swings in the lower 30s during its emerging stage of development.

Winter wheat is now greening up over northern Texas and part of Oklahoma. In parts of the northern Plains, the crop is still buried under snow and ice and may soon be inundated by flood waters.

The storm system rolling through into Tuesday is delivering soaking rain, wet snow and plenty of moisture for cotton growing areas in West Texas.

Close to 20 percent of the nation’s cotton crop lies over the northwest part of the Lone Star State.

This rain and other storms from this past winter have left plenty of moisture in the ground for the crop and others to thrive. However, too much of a good thing may not be good.

Rainfall on the order of 0.50 to 1.50 inches, on average will fall from this storm as it pushes to the south and east across Texas into Tuesday.

A storm that gets going this weekend could put down heavy snow and rain in parts of the Plains and Midwest, while driving cold air well to the south.

According to AccuWeather.com long-range expert meteorologist Joe Bastardi, wintry episodes are expected to break off during the first or second week of April.

Whether flooding problems continue well beyond that point is uncertain at this time.
If the current wet conditions hold on, there could be negative impact and some soil preparation work for crops in general over parts of the Plains, Midwest and South this spring.

It is still way too early to determine any impacts on corn planting this year.

Weather will be the major story this planting season. Every thing revolves around the weather – government programs, markets, prices and the list goes on.

Weather has a direct influence on how much commodity is produced. How much commodity that’s produce impacts markets. It all revolves around the weather.

Technology can take some of the edge off weather problems, but it if rains all the time or if its dry all the time, no matter the technology, there’s no crop. Whether you favor climate change theory or not, weather variability is something we can’t control, but we can influence. Look at last year, a record corn crop, but it was still an expensive crop because of weather variability didn’t allow the crop to dry down naturally causing producers to lose money because of drying expenses.

There’s always something going on with the weather. But the big concern for producers is developing a risk management program that’s flexible enough to deal with these unexpected turns in weather variability. 

Here’s a story from the National Weather Service that will surely impact markets, whether the forecast prevails or not.

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Major flooding has begun and is forecast to continue through spring in parts of the Midwest according to NOAA’s National Weather Service. The South and East are also more susceptible to flooding as an El Niño influenced winter left the area soggier than usual.

Overall, more than a third of the contiguous United States has an above average flood risk –– with the highest threat in the Dakotas, Minnesota and Iowa, including along the Red River Valley where crests could approach the record levels set just last year.

 Supporting the forecast of imminent Midwest flooding is a snowpack more extensive than in 2009 and containing in excess of 10 inches of liquid water in some locations. Until early March, consistently cold temperatures limited snow melt and runoff. These conditions exist on top of: above normal streamflows; December precipitation that was up to four times above average; and the ground which is frozen to a depth as much as three feet below the surface.

 “It’s a terrible case of déjà vu, but this time the flooding will likely be more widespread. As the spring thaw melts the snowpack, saturated and frozen ground in the Midwest will exacerbate the flooding of the flat terrain and feed rising rivers and streams,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “We will continue to refine forecasts to account for additional precipitation and rising temperatures, which affect the rate and severity of flooding.”

 “In the South and East, where an El Niño-driven winter was very wet and white, spring flooding is more of a possibility than a certainty and will largely be dependent upon the severity and duration of additional precipitation and how fast existing snow cover melts,” said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Though El Niño is forecast to continue at least through spring, its influence on day-to-day weather should lessen considerably.”

 Without a strong El Niño influence, climate forecasting for spring (April through June) is more challenging, but NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says odds currently favor wetter-than-average conditions in coastal sections of the Southeast; warmer-than-average temperatures across the western third of the nation and Alaska; and below-average temperatures in the extreme north-central and south-central U.S.

 Meteorologists and hydrologists with the National Weather Service issue timely and accurate flood forecasts and warnings from local weather forecast offices and regional river forecast centers across the nation. They constantly monitor precipitation, temperature, snowpack and waterway levels using a network of gauges, some of which are operated by vital partners such as the U.S. Geological Survey, and using NOAA aerial surveys of snowpack and its water content.

 NOAA’s National Weather Service provides a suite of decision support services ranging from direct briefings with emergency management agencies at all levels to its graphical Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service available at weather.gov/water.

LINCOLN – Agricultural land values in Nebraska increased about 4.4 percent in the last year, with rises in cropland values offsetting declines in rangeland, according to preliminary findings from the 2010 Nebraska Farm Real Estate Survey.

Overall, agricultural land values statewide increased from $1,431 per acre to $1,494 in the year ending Feb. 1, said Bruce Johnson, the University of Nebraska-Lincoln agricultural economist who conducts the annual survey.

The increase follows on the heels of a year of little to no value change across most of the state.

Dryland cropland with no irrigation potential increased an average of 6.4 percent, while statewide averages for gravity-irrigated cropland and center-pivot irrigated cropland climbed 5.2 and 6.1 percent, respectively.

Meantime, dryland cropland with potential to be developed for irrigation increased about 7.3 percent in value, though values varied considerably across the state depending on development restrictions and opportunities.

While average cropland values saw increases, the value of nontillable grazing land fell 5.6 percent statewide, with even larger declines recorded in major range areas of the state. For example, the North region, which comprises much of the Sandhills, saw a 10.1 percent decline.

“Survey reporters remarked frequently of the relatively strong income years as of late for the crop sector, while the livestock economy has struggled over the last few years to break even,” Johnson said. “These economic conditions get factored into virtually every local agricultural real estate market.

“It was also noted that the number of cropland offerings on the market have tended to be very limited relative to demand thus creating some upward bidding pressure on cropland tracts that do come up for sale,” Johnson added.

Overall, the average all-land value changes ranged from a 3.3 percent decrease in the North, which is heavily weighted toward grazing land acreage, to a 10.1 percent increase in the East.

Similar patterns are reflected in preliminary cash rental rates for 2010 compiled for the survey. Cropland rental rates tend to be up across the state, while pasture rates are holding steady or dropping slightly below 2009 levels, a reflection of the cattle economy.

Average dryland cropland rental rates are up 3 percent to 7 percent, while regional increases in the irrigated cropland classes are largely in the 4-to-8-percent range. The state’s highest cash rents are occurring in the Northeast and East, where high-quality center-pivot land is renting at about $280 per acre.

“Overall, the market for agricultural land across the state has remained relatively strong over the course of the national and global economic recession,” Johnson said. “While economic impacts have been felt in the farm economy, agricultural real estate assets have basically held both value and earnings potential to this point in time.

“Unlike residential and commercial real estate markets in numerous parts of the nation, agricultural land here in the U.S. heartland remains a relatively solid investment for its owners.”

Reports from a panel of agricultural land experts were compiled for this survey, which is conducted in cooperation with the Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources’ Agricultural Research Division. Final estimates will be available in a report this summer.

The report is available in the Department of Agricultural Economics’ publication Cornhusker Economics