The “Annual Energy Outlook 2009″ report was released today by the U.S. Energy Information Administration presents updated projections for U.S. energy consumption and production through 2030.

Oil Use and Import Dependence: For the first time in more than 20 years, the new AEO reference case projects virtually no growth in U.S. oil consumption, reflecting the combined effect of recently
enacted CAFE standards, requirements for increased use of renewable fuels, and an assumed rebound in oil prices as the world economy recovers.

With overall liquid fuel demand in the AEO2009 reference case growing by only 1 million barrels per day between 2007 and 2030, increased use of domestically-produced biofuels, and rising domestic oil production spurred by higher prices, the net import share of total liquids supplied, including biofuels, declines from 58 percent in 2007to less than 40 percent in 2025 before increasing to 41 percent in 2030 (Figure 1).

Natural Gas Use and Import Dependence: The reference case raises EIA’s projection for U.S. production and consumption of natural gas, reflecting increased availability of resources and higher demand for electric power generation. With growing production of natural gas from unconventional onshore sources, the Outer Continental Shelf, and Alaska, the net import share of total natural gas use also declines, from 16 percent in 2007 to less than 3 percent in 2030.

Total Primary Energy Use and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions:  Efficiency policies and higher energy prices in AEO2009 slow the rise in U.S. energy use, which is projected to grow from 101.9 quadrillion
Btu in 2007 to 113.3 quadrillion Btu in 2030. When combined with the increased use of renewables and a reduction in projected additions of new coal-fired conventional power plants, this slows the growth in
energy-related GHG emissions. Energy-related CO2 emissions grow at 0.3 percent per year from 2007 to 2030 in the AEO2009 reference case, reaching a level of 6,410 million metric tons in 2030, as compared
with 6,851 million metric tons in the AEO2008 reference case (Figure 3).

Oil Prices:  The assumption of a higher world oil price path in the AEO2009 reference case reflects tighter constraints on access to low cost oil supplies in a setting where the forces driving growth in
long-term demand in non-OECD countries remains as strong as previously expected. In 2007 dollars, the world crude oil price, averaging near $60 in 2009, rises as the global economy rebounds and global demand
once again grows more rapidly than non-OPEC liquids supply. In 2030, the average real price of crude oil is $130 per barrel in 2007 dollars ($189 per barrel in nominal dollars) (Figure 4).

Renewable Energy Use:  Total consumption of marketed renewable fuels – including wood, municipal waste, and biomass in the end use sectors; hydroelectricity, geothermal, municipal waste, biomass, solar,
and wind for electric power generation; ethanol for gasoline blending; and biomass-based diesel – grows by 3.3 percent per year in the AEO2009 reference case. This rapid growth reflects the EISA2007
renewable fuel standard and strong growth in the use of renewables for electricity generation that is spurred by renewable portfolio standards for electricity generators in many States.

Vehicle Characteristics:  A sharp increase in the sale of unconventional vehicle technologies, such as flex-fuel, hybrid, and diesel vehicles, and a significant decline in the new light-truck
share of total light-duty vehicle sales are projected. Hybrid vehicle sales (all varieties) increase from 2 percent of new light-duty vehicle sales in 2007 to 38 percent in 2030. Sales of plug-in hybrid electric
vehicles (PHEVs) grow to 90,000 vehicles annually by 2014, supported by recently enacted tax credits. By 2030, PHEVs account for 2 percent of new light vehicle sales (Figure 5).

Modeling Methodology:  The AEO2009 reference case assumes no changes in current laws and regulations. However, it reflects the behavior of investors and regulators who, in their investment evaluation process,
are implicitly (or explicitly) adding a cost to many proposed power plants that employ GHG-intensive technologies. Additions of new coal-fired power plants are significantly reduced from earlier
projections.

Other highlights of the AEO2009 reference case projections include:

* Coal, oil, and natural gas meet 79 percent of total U.S. primary energy supply requirements in 2030, down from an 85-percent share in 2007.

* Total domestic production of natural gas reaches 23.7 trillion cubic feet by 2030. While exploration and production costs rise over time, higher natural gas prices support the projected level of production. Onshore production of unconventional natural gas, including shale gas, increases from 9.2 trillion cubic feet in 2007 to 13.2 trillion cubic feet in 2030.

* Ethanol use for gasoline blending grows to 12.2 billion gallons and E85 consumption to 17.3 billion gallons in 2030. The ethanol supply from cellulosic feedstocks reaches 12.6 billion gallons (including both domestic and imported production) in 2030. Biodiesel and biomass-to-liquid diesel fuel use both rise significantly, reaching nearly 2 billion gallons and 5 billion gallons, respectively, in 2030.

* Total electricity consumption, including both purchases from electric power producers and on-site generation, grows from 3,903 billion kilowatthours in 2007 to 4,902 billion kilowatthours in 2030.

* New natural gas and renewable plants account for the majority of generating capacity additions. The natural gas share of electricity generation remains between 19 percent and 22 percent through 2030. Coal’s generation share declines from 49 percent to 45 percent between 2007 and 2025, then rebounds slightly to 47 percent in 2030 as a small number of new coal plants are added.

President-elect Barack Obama plans to appoint former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack as agriculture secretary, according to the National Farmers Union (NFU).

NFU President Tom Buis said Gov. Vilsack is a great choice.

“I look forward to working with him,” Buis said.  “Being from Iowa, Gov. Vilsack has an understanding of the challenges and opportunities that exist in rural America.”

Buis said rural America is facing many challenges – “…the farm and rural economy have changed dramatically for the worst over the last few months as a result of the worldwide economic recession, the rules for the 2008 Farm Bill have not been finalized nor implemented, more people are seeking food assistance, and commodity prices have fallen dramatically while farmer input costs remain high.”

“While rural America faces many challenges, President-elect Obama has prioritized numerous opportunities, including reducing our nation’s dependence on foreign oil by advancing the development of renewable energy,” Buis said.  “Not only will this help our nation, it will help revitalize our rural communities. Wind, solar, biofuels, geothermal, cellulosic, will all be produced in rural America.

“President-elect Obama’s rural vision is right on target.”

Looking for the magic elixir that will reduce your risk of developing a chronic disease and will also elevate your sense of well-being? Look no further than your own two legs. A simple daily walk will help you reduce stress, elevate your mood and lower your risks for heart disease, stroke and Type 2 Diabetes.

According to the United States Department of Health and Human Services, doing at least 30 minutes of moderately intense physical activity on top of your usual activity, on most days of the week, will reduce your risk for chronic disease. The website http://www.healthierus.gov contains information outlining the benefits of regular physical activity as well as guidance on how to incorporate more physical activity in your daily routine. The 30 minutes of exercise can be accomplished in shorter increments, such as 10 minutes three times each day.

Many people also report that a regular program of physical activity leads to reduced stress and an elevated mood. Some studies suggest that increased physical activity can reduce the symptoms of mild anxiety or depression. During these cold, dark months in Minnesota, a program of physical activity such as a regular daily walk can lead to a happier, more productive winter.

Walking is one of the simplest, least expensive and most effective ways to incorporate more physical activity into your daily routine. Comfortable sturdy shoes with a nonslip tread and weather-appropriate clothing is all you need to begin a walking program. Give yourself the gift of 10 minutes in the morning, 10 minutes during lunch or in the afternoon, and 10 minutes in the evening; or, choose one 30-minute time during the day to get out for a walk. Walk at a brisk but comfortable pace – you should be able to carry on a conversation without becoming breathless.

Although there are great benefits to walking outdoors each day, Minnesota winters can present a barrier to your good intentions. To reduce the risk of injury, particularly from snow and ice, investigate indoor options in your neighborhood for walking on a flat, level surface. Is there a shopping mall nearby? Does your local school offer times during the day for community members to walk the halls? Will your local grocery store allow you to walk the aisles?

Take a few minutes each day, scout out several routes for safety and variety, and get walking. You’ll feel better for it.

During hard economic times many consumers may run out of money before the next payday. When this happens some people turn to payday loans.

Eileen St. Pierre, Oklahoma State University Cooperative Extension personal finance specialist, said a payday loan is a small, short-term loan used to cover a borrower’s expenses until his or her next payday.

“Payday loans are normally due every week or every other week,” St. Pierre said. “With these loans borrowers get into financial trouble and it usually seems other debts like credit cards or mortgages tend to be ignored.”

Research found payday loan applicants who received the quick cash after their first application were significantly more likely to file for Chapter 13 bankruptcy than those whose initial application was denied.

Furthermore, research indicated payday loans coupled with interest payments may be sufficient to tip the balance into bankruptcy for a population that is already severely financially stressed.

“Let’s say you take out a $100 payday loan for seven days. You are charged a $25 fee for this. You may not realize, but the $25 is a form of interest,” St. Pierre said. “So when you get your paycheck at the end of the week, you need to pay back $125. Pay off this loan and never return!”

However, many who take out payday loans do return in need of cash.

“Each week, people end up taking out another $100 loan. If the cycle continues for each successive week the annual interest rate on this would be 1,303.57 percent,” she said. “Payday loan providers are required to provide information to consumers on payday loans, this information can be found at mypaydayloan.com.”

St. Pierre offers these tips to increase emergency savings and reduce the need for payday loans:

• Increase income by working overtime if available, get a part-time job and put that money into a savings account. Sell what you can, hold a garage sale; try to avoid pawn shops if at all possible.
• Decrease monthly expenses anyway you can. Lower the thermostat a few degrees, turn off the heat when you are not home, turn off the lights when you leave a room, shut off the television when you are not watching it. Reduce or cancel cable service or cell phone service.
• Look for ways to bundle services together.
• Shop smarter. Try to use coupons and buy more generic-brand products. Try to generate enough savings using coupons to cover the sales tax on groceries.
• Change driving habits. Reduce gas consumption by combining shopping trips. Carpool with friends, walk when you can or if your community offers a bus service commute that way.

“You can also see if there are programs offered by your church or local community that can help you during this difficult time and help you manage your finances,” she said.