The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate, released Thursday, said that beef imports are raised for 2010 based on the current pace of imports and weakening domestic cow slaughter.

The report said that “…export forecasts for beef, pork, and broilers are raised, partly reflecting strong recent shipments. Stronger demand from a number of markets is expected to support higher exports through the remainder of this year and into next year.”

According to the report, total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are reduced slightly
from last month.

“Beef production for 2010 is reduced on slightly lower estimated second quarter output and forecast lighter
average carcass weights in the third quarter that more than offset slightly higher slaughter,” the report said. “For 2011, beef production is unchanged but is shifted between quarters as more cattle are
expected to be marketed in the first part of the year.”

According to the report, pork production in late 2010 and 2011 is reduced on lower expected
imports of live swine from Canada.

“Broiler meat and turkey production for 2010 reflects slightly higher estimated second quarter production,” the report said. “Forecast poultry meat production for the remainder of 2010 and 2011 is unchanged. Cattle, hog, and poultry prices are little changed from last month.”

In evaluating the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the Earth Policy Institue said that world carryover grain stocks fell to 72 days of consumption, which they said is “uncomfortably close” to levels prior to 2007–08 food price spike that set off food riots across the globe.

According to the WASDE report, Earth Policy Institute said estimates for this year’s global grain carryover stocks have fallen to 444 million tons.

“This amount of grain remaining in the world’s silos and stockpiles when the next harvest begins is enough to meet 72 days of consumption,” according ot Earth Policy Institute.

“This drop in world carryover stocks of grain to 72 days of consumption is moving us uncomfortably close to the 64 days of carryover stocks in 2007 that fueled the 2007–08 spike in world food prices,” said Lester R. Brown, president of Earth Policy Institute.

According to Brown, a searing record heat wave, severe drought, and relentless wildfires in Russia and Central Europe have decimated the region’s harvests.

Brown said Russia’s wheat production is now estimated at 45 million tons, a 27 percent drop from last year. In Kazakhstan, he said the wheat harvest is down 32 percent to 12 million tons, and in Ukraine it is 17 million tons, 19 percent smaller than in 2009.

“On August 5, Russia announced that it was banning grain exports at least through the end of the year and requested that neighboring countries do the same,” Brown said. “Since these three countries typically supply a fourth of world wheat exports, wheat prices have risen along with the region’s temperature.”

Browin said Russia runs the risk of drought spillover into the next year if there is not enough soil moisture to plant the new winter wheat crop.

“With soils parched, planting time only days away, and not much rain in prospect, this is a growing concern in Moscow, and indeed in the world,” he said.

Brown said longer, more-intense heat waves and dangerous wildfires are consistent with projections for a warming world.

“Rising temperatures and food security do not mix,” said Brown. “The situation in Russia gives us a preview of what could be in store if we continue to overheat our planet. This should be a wake-up call for the world: to protect our food security we need to dramatically cut carbon dioxide emissions. We cannot continue to burn coal and oil with abandon and expect to have bumper harvests that can keep up with the record demand generated by population growth and the increasing use of grain to feed livestock and to fuel cars.”

For the US, the USDA reports that wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are lowered this month as higher expected exports more than offset an increase in forecast production and lower projected feed and residual
use.

According to the WASDE report, production is forecast 49 million bushels higher mostly reflecting higher yields for durum and other spring wheat, especially in the Northern Plains. Winter wheat production is
also raised slightly as higher yields in the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest more than offset reductions in the eastern Corn Belt. Feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels
as rising values have priced wheat out of feed rations.

Exports, according to the report, are projected 200 million bushels higher with declines in foreign production, particularly in the FSU-12, reducing global supplies and making U.S. wheat competitive in key Middle East and North Africa markets.

U.S. ending stocks are projected 141 million bushels lower from last month, and down 21 million from 2009/10, according to the report. The 2010/11 season-average farm price is projected at $4.70 to $5.50 per bushel, up 50 cents on both ends of the range.

According WASDE, world wheat imports and exports are reduced sharply as tighter supplies and higher prices reduce projected global consumption. Imports are projected 5.7 million tons lower as higher prices reduce demand in a number of countries.

“Exports are lowered 12.0 million tons for Russia partly reflecting the recent announcement banning exports through December,” the report said. “Also limiting Russia export prospects is higher expected wheat feeding with drought-reduced forage and coarse grain crops and policy goals aimed at increasing domestic meat production.”

Another excellent crop is expected for Nebraska, according to a new report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Thursday.

Based on August 1 conditions, Nebraska’s corn crop is forecast at 1.54 billion bushels, 2 percent below last year’s record production but still the second largest of record, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, Nebraska Field Office.

According to the USDA,  harvested for grain, at 8.55 million acres, is down 3 percent from a year ago. Yield is forecast at a record high 180 bushels per acre, 2 bushels above the previous high set last year.

“Above normal rainfall throughout much of the growing season has benefitted dryland areas, resulting in excellent yield prospects. This combined with irrigated corn prospects which are above historic norms has contributed to the excellent yield forecast,” said Joseph Parsons, Director of the Nebraska Field Office.

Nationwide, the USDA said that corn production is forecast at a record high 13.4 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the previous record set in 2009. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average a record high 165.0 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushel from last year’s record of 164.7.

According to the report, soybean production in Nebraska is forecast at 284 million bushels, 9 percent above last year and highest of record. Area for harvest, at 5.35 million acres, is up 12 percent from 2009. Yield is forecast at 53 bushels per acre, down 1.5 bushels from last year’s high but still the second largest of record.

According to the USDA, forecasted yields are higher than last year across the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes region where moderate temperatures and adequate soil moisture provided favorable growing conditions. Expected yields, according to the report, were also higher compared with last year across the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley.
Yield prospects are lower in both the Atlantic Coast region and Tennessee Valley due to above normal temperatures and dry conditions, according to the USDA.

Nationwide, the USDA reported soybean production is forecast at a record high 3.43 billion bushels, up 2 percent from last year. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 44.0 bushels per acre, unchanged from last year’s record high yield.

Compared with last year, the USDA said yields are forecast higher across the northern tier States, with increases of 4 bushels or more in Minnesota, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The largest increase in yield from 2009, according to the USDA,  is expected in Texas, where the yield is forecast to be up 9 bushels from last year. In addition, increases are expected in the Delta States.

With the exceptions of Illinois and South Carolina, USDA said yields are forecast down or unchanged across the central part of the soybean growing region, extending from the central Great Plains to the East Coast and down into the Southeast.

The Mid-Atlantic States, the report said, are expecting the largest declines from last year, asDelaware, Maryland, and Virginia are all expecting yields to be down more than 10 bushels from 2009 due to very hot and dry weather this summer.

If realized, the USDA said the forecasted yield in New York will be a record high and the forecasted yield in Arkansas will tie the previous record high.

Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 78.0 million acres, unchanged from June but up 2 percent from 2009, according to the USDA.

The report said Nebraska’s 2010 winter wheat crop is forecast at 68.4 million bushels, down 2 percent from last month’s forecast and 11 percent below last year’s crop. Area for grain, at 1.52 million acres, is unchanged from last month but 5 percent below last year. Yield is forecast at 45 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel from last month and 3 bushels below last year’s record high.

Other highlights from the report:

* Sorghum yield is forecast at 94 bushels per acre, up 1 bushel from last year. Production is forecast at 6.1 million bushels, down 53 percent from a year ago, a result of fewer acres planted.

* Oat yield is forecast at 70 bushels per acre, 1 bushel above last year. Production of 2.1 million bushels is 1 percent above last year.

* Dry edible bean production is up 48 percent from last year, largely due to more acres planted. Sugarbeet production is down 13 percent from 2009.

* Alfalfa hay production is forecast to be 4 percent above last year and all other hay production is unchanged.

Despite the growing protest about the proposed Canadian oil pipeline through Nebraska’s Sandhills, Sen. Mike Johanns (R-Neb.) said Wednesday that he has sent a letter to the President and CEO of TransCanada Corporation, seeking assurances that the company is negotiating fairly with Nebraskans.

“I wrote to TransCanada’s CEO asking for his assurance that their negotiations with Nebraskans are above board,” Johanns said. “Landowners tell me that TransCanada has set arbitrary deadlines for acceptance of payment offers and threatened the use of eminent domain without so much as an approved permit to move forward with the project. In my letter, I ask TransCanada to immediately lift any deadlines imposed on Nebraska landowners and to negotiate in good faith.”

 Why oil from tar sands are important is that much of the world’s oil (more than 2 trillion barrels) is in the form of tar sands, although it is not all recoverable.

“While tar sands are found in many places worldwide, the largest deposits in the world are found in Canada (Alberta) and Venezuela, and much of the rest is found in various countries in the Middle East. In the United States, tar sands resources are primarily concentrated in Eastern Utah, mostly on public lands. The in-place tar sands oil resources in Utah are estimated at 12 to 19 billion barrels,” according to this website.

With the U.S. the largest consumer of oil in the world, having this reserve so close at hand it could be an economic and strategic advantage to the U.S.

But the downside is huge. And with global warming and climate change a real concern, continued dependence on fossil fuels could be environmentally damaging, especially to the world’s food supply.

Nebraska finds itself is a unique position with the proposed oil pipeline. By stopping its construction in Nebraska, the state sends a huge message that there are safer alternatives, such as the development of the state’s wind energy potential and tapping into Nebraska huge solar energy potential as Nebraska ranked 13th in the nation in a 2006 survey. Nebraska ranks sixth in the nation in wind energy potential.

Also, Nebraska sits over one the largest fresh water reserves in the world with the Ogallala Aquifer.

There may be a short-term advantage to exploiting the tar sand oil reserves, but with its potential environmental harm, the question is, Is it worth the cost?